Longtime Butler County resident Susan Collier said she wasn’t completely surprised that voters chose a Democrat over a Republican in a recent special election — even in the traditionally red area.

“I think people are frustrated at the top and so they’re voting this way,” she said Thursday while at the Zelienople library with her two grandchildren. She added some people she knows in the area are so frustrated they either don’t want to discuss politics or become argumentative when they do.

Democrat Brandon Dukes edged out Republican Scott Timko by 97 votes in a special election on Aug. 18 for Pennsylvania’s 12th Legislative District, unofficial results show. The election was called to fill the remainder of former Republican state Rep. Stephenie Scialabba’s term. Scialabba, who had held the seat since 2023 and won reelection in 2024 with 64% of the vote, resigned in March.

The district covers much of southwestern Butler County, including Adams, Cranberry and Jackson townships; and the boroughs of Callery, Evans City, Harmony, Mars, Valencia and Zelienople.

Collier has lived in Butler County for more than 30 years. In that time, Pennsylvania’s 12th District has traditionally favored Republicans. For more than two decades, it was represented by former state Rep. Daryl Metcalfe, a conservative Republican whose combative style frequently drew statewide and national attention.

But as southwestern Butler County has grown and changed, experts question whether the area’s political makeup is changing too — shifting from red to purple, like other growing suburban areas around the country.

Christopher Borick, a professor of political science at Lehigh University, said the race was driven less by demographic changes and more by short-term political factors nationally.

“The president’s standing, the president’s performance, his performance on key issues, economic issues, inflation, cost of living, the war with Iran,” Borick said. “All these things are weighing on Republicans and that’s, I think, driving the moment right now.”

University of Pittsburgh history professor Lara Putnam said several factors may have contributed to the Democratic victory, including national backlash against President Donald Trump and the changing demographics of communities such as Cranberry Township.

“Even during the Biden presidency, Democrats were doing better in low turnout and special elections than you would have expected,” said Putnam, who studies grassroots political movements. “And Republicans were doing worse in those special elections.”

Stacey Palmer, chairwoman of the Butler County Republican Committee of Pennsylvania, said the party has taken away lessons from the special election. But Republicans push back against the idea Cranberry is now “purple.”

Cranberry is “not a progressive town,” she said. “It’s a conservative one.”

“Brandon Dukes is a self-described progressive,” Palmer said. “Scott Timko shares the conservative values that the hard-working people of Cranberry and the 12th District hold.”

The special election received widespread attention from both parties in the final days.

Timko was aided by the Republican Party of Pennsylvania, with supporters ranging from Slippery Rock Mayor Jondavid Longo to conservative activist Scott Presler, who knocked on doors in the district. Attorney General Dave Sunday also posted online his support for Timko the day before the election.

Dukes received support from statewide Democrats, with Lt. Gov. Austin Davis and U.S. Rep. Chris Deluzio, D-17th, campaigning for him.

With Dukes and Timko set for a rematch on Nov. 3, Democrats see an opportunity to compete for a seat Republicans have long held.

“It’s a combination of all of the above, I think. The Cranberry area where he was running is becoming more purple,” said Don Vigliotti, chairman of the Butler County Democratic Committee. “I also think people are tired of high prices and what we’re seeing from the current administration. Gas prices being high all the time: These things affect Butler County.”

Vickie Sadaka has lived in Cranberry Township since 2005. She said she was shocked by the election results and believed Dukes’ win was either due to low voter turnout or foul play. She wasn’t thrilled with Timko, but felt he was the better choice.

“There’s been a lot of people moving into the area,” Sadaka said. “But I feel like most of the people that I’ve talked to anyway — and granted, it's probably the older people — but I feel like they’re more conservative.”

Sadaka was at the Mars library playing a card game with three friends, surrounded by tables lined with clothes for a children’s clothing swap program.

“He stands for things that none of us stand for,” she said of Dukes. “Not anybody I know either and so we were very upset about it.”

Earlier this year, data showed Democratic candidates outperforming Kamala Harris’ 2024 results in a majority of state and federal special elections nationwide by 5 to more than 20 percentage points.

Borick said the Nov. 3 general election will prove more challenging for Democrats. Conditions will be more favorable for Republicans looking to flip the seat back, he said, though they will still have to work hard to do so.

“Democrats are much more enthusiastic right now about this election cycle,” Borick said. “That enthusiasm is realized in greater turnout.”

Incumbent Gov. Josh Shapiro will also face a November election against his Republican opponent, state Treasurer Stacy Garrity. A poll partially sponsored by PennLive has Shapiro leading 53% to 28%. Quinnipiac has Shapiro up 53% to 40%. The data was not broken down by region.

Borick said two months is only a little time for Dukes to prove to 12th District constituents that he’s worth reelection.

“It’s very unlikely any proposed legislation will move through in a few months,” he said. “But if he wants to show people in the district that he’s listening to their concerns, he can act on it by at least coming to the House and proposing something that he thinks would help.”

In recent weeks, Trump’s approval rating has ranged from 33% to 37% in national polls from The Economist, Reuters, The New York Times and CNN. In Pennsylvania, research firm Civiqs put Trump’s approval at 37% as of Aug. 19.

Collier said she agrees with some of Trump’s policies, but is frustrated by his “lack of verbal control.”

“If he could not offend so many people, it might be a little easier,” she said.

Chris Rieger, a Democrat who had run for the 12th state House seat against Metcalfe in 2016, watched the special election closely.

Rieger, now a Dormont council member, previously lived in Cranberry Township and Seven Fields. He said he found himself reflecting on his previous campaign as he celebrated Dukes’ win

“I don’t believe it was necessarily a fluke performance in a special election. You don’t get a result like that without years of organizing. Candidates matter and Dukes was a good candidate,” Rieger said. “He got help from officials around the state. I don’t think there would have been that kind of investment without something to build off of, without infrastructure in place.”

Metcalfe — the former state representative who competed against Rieger in the 2016 election and Timko in a 2020 primary election — posted on Facebook after the election with his own perspective on Tuesday’s outcome.

“They are celebrating more than they should! The “Republican” they beat was more like them than me,” Metcalfe said in the post, which referenced how Timko had run against him in a 2020 primary election. Metcalfe was reelected in the November election.

“Their victory does not have national implications as much as they believe it does,” Metcalfe continued.

As for what happens in November, Rieger isn’t sure what will happen as Dukes and Timko face off again.

“I can’t predict what’s going to happen in November, but I would still expect a strong performance from Dukes” Rieger said. “Grassroots organizers in Western PA are aware of what the stakes are.”

Cassandra Harris is a reporter with the Pittsburgh Media Partnership newsroom. A spring 2026 graduate of Point Park University, Cassandra interned at the Pittsburgh Magazine, Pittsburgh Latino Magazine and The Homepage Newspaper. Reach her at cassandra.harris@pointpark.edu.

Zach Zimmerman is a staff writer with the Butler Eagle. He covers education and politics in Butler County. Reach him at zzimmerman@butlereagle.com.

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