Residents may view Pennsylvania’s House of Representatives District 12 in southwest Butler County as reliably red, represented by Republicans since the ’90s and unlikely to change.

Former Rep. Stephenie Scialabba received over 64% of the vote in 2024; but Brandon Dukes and his team think they smell change in the air. Dukes, a Democrat, will face off against Republican Scott Timko in the Aug. 18 special election for the remainder of Scialabba’s term, and again in the November general election for a full two-year term.

The candidates find themselves in a district that Republicans have dominated for some time, but the area has seen a growing population, changing demographics and a few strong Democratic performances.

The GOP still has a voter registration advantage in the district, as local party chairwoman Stacey Palmer notes. But it remains to be seen what voter turnout will look like Aug. 18.

“I can see why this is going to be a big deal. I think this is a seat that’s not like any other seat around here,” Dukes said in an early June interview. “It’s a flippable district.”

Butler County has long been ruby red. Over the past 150 years, it has only been swayed to favor Democrats once at the presidential level, in the 1964 landslide election of Lyndon B. Johnson over Republican Barry Goldwater. In the past three presidential elections, it has given almost the exact same percentage of votes to President Donald Trump — right around 65%.

There is not any indication the county as a whole will swing heavily away from the Republicans any time soon. Only one precinct in Butler County — Cranberry Township West 2 — supported the Democratic candidate, then-Vice President Kamala Harris, in the 2024 election.

However, something peculiar happened in 2024. While there was very little swing, Butler was one of very few counties in Pennsylvania to trend leftward of the statewide result, albeit by a tiny shift in margin.

A more drastic change was on display in 2022, when then-Attorney General Josh Shapiro was elected Governor, 56.5% to 41.7%. In that election, Shapiro, the Democratic candidate, carried the 12th state House District by a small margin — 133 votes.

The 12th District contains Adams, Cranberry and Jackson townships; and Callery, Evans City, Harmony, Mars, Seven Fields, Valencia and Zelienople boroughs. Those municipalities make up one of the few regions in Western Pennsylvania with steady or rapid growth, as well as increases in the number of Black, Hispanic or Latino and Asian residents.

Dukes himself is no stranger to competitive elections within the district’s neighborhoods. In 2025, he lost a Cranberry Township supervisor election by a 50.6% to 49.3% margin.

“I feel the demographics are changing and we have a new generation of voters. There are quite a few transplants coming to Cranberry Township specifically,” Dukes said. “My last election, I was just shy of winning. I feel there’s some excitement out there.

“It goes to show the hunger, the appetite is there for change, for something different.”

Looming in the background of the special election are national trends and results stemming from other special elections in the year and a half since Trump’s second inauguration, as well as national and state level polling.

Those trends heavily favor Democrats.

Earlier this year, data showed a majority of special elections at the state and federal level around the country resulting in higher performance by Democratic candidates, anywhere from 5% to greater than 20% better than Harris in 2024.

Concurrently, recent polling shows Trump’s national approval rating starting to regularly slip at or below 35%. And it is often the case a president’s popularity impacts the rest of his party’s elections.

This past week, polls on Trump include 34% approval, according to CNN; 33% approval, according to the Associated Press; and 32% approval, according to Quinnipiac University, which regularly does national polling.

Polling of Trump’s approval in Pennsylvania alone has varied. Research firm Civiqs puts it at 40% approval and 55% disapproval, as of July 24. But in June, a poll from Franklin & Marshall College has Trump’s approval here at just 29%.

“With the current occupant of the White House, federal issues is the No. 1 thing we hear about when I’m out campaigning, but we can’t do too much about that at state level,” Dukes said.

Governors are known to have an impact on races in their states as well.

Incumbent Gov. Josh Shapiro seems well-positioned for reelection against his Republican opponent, state treasurer Stacy Garrity. A poll partially sponsored by PennLive has Shapiro up 53% to 28%. Quinnipiac has Shapiro up 53% to 40%. However, that data was not broken down by region.

Amid the national and statewide political landscape, it remains to be seen if the 12th state House District will follow these trends or if local politics will buck larger trends.

In the May 19 primary election, Dukes ran unopposed for the Democratic nomination. He received 4,673 votes.

For the Republican nomination, Timko edged out fellow candidate Ethan Nicholas by just over 200 votes. The primary saw 6,267 total votes cast for Republican candidates for the 12th District election. Timko received 3,201 votes to Nicholas’ 2,984.

“Structurally, the Republicans still have a voter advantage,” Palmer said. “Our goal is to make sure people know this special election is happening and that their vote is important. And we’re going to fight for every vote.”

Right now, the Pennsylvania House of Representatives has a narrow margin, 102 seats to 100 favoring Democrats, underscoring the importance of individual seats. It will receive attention in August and the November general election, when the candidates will meet again.

Both parties are on the ground campaigning and also simply making people aware there is a special election Aug. 18. Lack of awareness of the election is an obstacle both parties said they’re running into.

But once Republican residents are told about the election, Palmer said, they are “pretty motivated” to vote.

“We’ve been engaging with the voters by knocking on doors, phone calls, texts, getting our candidates out to festivals and events,” Palmer said. “It’s been the goal to help voters now that the election is here and making sure that they request a mail-in ballot if they’re out of town and making plans to vote.

“I would say people are overall concerned about the state. They want to make sure we retain power. We’re fighting for Republican balance.”

Timko has expressed strong support for fiscally conservative policies. He supports a tough stance on crime and illegal immigration, and making sure residents “have the final say on data center developments,” according to his website.

“I think they’re paying attention. I think they sense an opportunity, at least the people I talk to. We have a lot at stake in this election. We don’t want the seat to remain unfilled, and we want to make sure we fill it with a candidate with conservative values to represent a conservative district,” Timko said Aug. 4.

“The people I talk to seem to understand the ramifications of this election.”

Donald Vigliotti, chair of the Butler County Democrats, also said the party’s committee is focused on quickly mobilizing volunteers to canvass and phonebank for Dukes and raise awareness there is a special election.

“Once we talk about Brandon and his platform, a lot of voters seem to be excited about Brandon’s chances,” Vigliotti said.

Dukes has cited working to complete the Route 228 project, focusing on affordability and investing in public education as some of the main pillars of his campaign.

Vigliotti also cited abortion access and protecting Medicaid and Medicare.

“Every year, Butler County barely has any Democrats on the ballot, and we’re here. We’re offering something different on the ballot,” Dukes said July 30.

“We’re going to do the best we can to get people out and offer them a choice. There is a stark difference between the candidates,” he later added.

Where the 12th State House District’s candidates stand on key issues