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Courts will likely decide new maps

CRANBERRY TWP — Monday was the deadline for the General Assembly to pass and the governor to sign new U.S. House and state legislative maps to not affect the May primary elections’ timeframe.

No new map is in effect, however.

What happens now depends on whether the legislature and Gov. Tom Wolf can come to an agreement before Jan. 30, how the state courts rule, and whether the extant General Assembly maps apply for the 2022 elections.

Why now?

All 50 states must update their U.S. House legislative maps — which determines who lives in what House district — every 10 years based on census data. Pennsylvania requires its General Assembly maps to be updated every 10 years, as well.

Adding complication to the redistricting process is that Pennsylvania’s representation in the federal government will decrease from 18 to 17 legislative districts beginning in January 2023 as a result of the census numbers.

State legislators worked since the release of 2020’s census data to create new districts. The current proposal, which passed the state Senate and went to the governor’s desk Monday, would create five districts leaning Democrat, nine districts leaning Republican and three “highly competitive” districts, according to political reporting site FiveThirtyEight.

Gov. Tom Wolf in December called the proposed map “heavily skewed,” and on Jan. 15 released his own proposed map which significantly differs from the current proposal making its way through the state legislature.

Also in December, then-acting Secretary of the Commonwealth Veronica DeGraffenreid wrote a letter to legislative leaders setting a Jan. 24 deadline to pass and approve new legislative maps. Failing to do so, she wrote, would impact the timelines of the primary elections.

Monday was a deadline in a state Commonwealth Court case regarding reapportionment, with General Assembly Republicans and Democrats, as well as the governor, ordered to submit up to two proposed maps for consideration by 5 p.m.

What’s next?

The short answer: It isn’t clear.

County Commissioner Kevin Boozel said the county met with the Pennsylvania Department of State, the state’s county commissioners association and new acting Secretary of the Commonwealth Leigh M. Chapman on Monday.

Boozel aired his concerns at Wednesday’s commissioners meeting, saying a lack of new maps would complicate elections timelines.

"What I'm hearing, grapevine-wise, is that neither side's budging, and it'll go on to the courts. That's the only kind of inkling I'm getting,“ Boozel said. ”What that means, I don't know."

If the sides do not come to an agreement by Jan. 30, then the Commonwealth Court will “issue an opinion based on the (Jan. 27 and Jan. 28) hearing and evidence presented by” Democrats and Republicans in the state legislature, as well as the governor’s office.

Boozel said some are pushing to delay the primaries, while others hope to keep it where it is and shorten the deadlines for candidates to complete nominating petitions.

“None of those are good options,” he said.

As for the state legislature’s map, it looks as though they will hold the same, according to Boozel, but anything could change.

“From what I'm gathering, it's more likely that the state map would carry for an additional year. That's kind of the way I see it moving,” he said. “Will that happen? Your guess is as good as mine."

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